A new poll by the Latino Community Foundation (LCF) and BSP Research reveals that Latino voters in five competitive California congressional districts could play a decisive role in determining control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024. The data shows significant Democratic advantages among Latino voters, though with notable numbers still undecided.
Congressional Districts Overview
District Demographics
| District (Area) | Latino Eligible Voters |
|---|---|
| CA-13 (Merced) | 50.0% |
| CA-22 (Bakersfield) | 59.4% |
| CA-27 (Palmdale) | 33.3% |
| CA-41 (Palm Springs) | 30.0% |
| CA-45 (Fullerton) | 23.0% |
Current Polling Results
Head-to-Head Matchups
- CA-13 (Merced)
- Adam Gray (D): 46%
- Rep. John Duarte (R): 26%
- Undecided: 28%
- CA-22 (Bakersfield)
- Rudy Salas (D): 57%
- Rep. David Valadao (R): 21%
- Undecided: 21%
- CA-27 (Palmdale)
- George Whitesides (D): 54%
- Rep. Mike Garcia (R): 24%
- Undecided: 22%
- CA-41 (Palm Springs)
- Will Rollins (D): 51%
- Rep. Ken Calvert (R): 28%
- Undecided: 21%
- CA-45 (Fullerton)
- Derek Tran (D): 52%
- Rep. Michelle Steel (R): 30%
- Undecided: 19%
Key Issues Driving Latino Voters
Top Concerns
- Cost of living
- Housing costs
- Jobs and economy
Policy Priorities
Approximately 75% of Latino voters favor candidates who support:
- Pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants
- Extended child tax credits for families
- Guaranteed abortion access
Historical Context
2022 Midterm Perspective
- Total vote differential across all five districts: ~38,000 votes
- Demonstrates extremely competitive nature of these races
- Highlights importance of voter turnout
Expert Analysis
According to Julián Castro, CEO of the Latino Community Foundation:
“Latino voters in California’s competitive districts will play a crucial role in determining the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.”
Dr. Gary Segura, lead researcher, notes:
“Democrats have a clear advantage with Latino voters, and the GOP messages do not appear to be having much effect. Nevertheless, Democratic issue positions are still running ahead of Democratic candidates, and there is a large undecided cohort in these five seats.”
Strategic Implications
Democratic Advantages
- Strong leads in head-to-head polling
- Alignment with key policy preferences
- Significant Latino population in target districts
Republican Challenges
- Current polling deficits
- Message effectiveness issues
- Need for stronger Latino outreach
Opportunities for Both Parties
- Large undecided voter pools
- Room for message refinement
- Potential for increased engagement
Looking Ahead
Key Factors to Watch
- Voter turnout efforts
- Message evolution
- Campaign resource allocation
- Issue prioritization
- Demographic shifts
The Latino vote in these five California congressional districts could prove decisive in determining House control. With significant Democratic advantages but large undecided populations, both parties have opportunities to shape the outcome through targeted outreach and policy positions that resonate with Latino voters’ primary concerns.
