The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recently unveiled its much-anticipated study on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, igniting a heated debate about their future. While the DOE refrained from outright recommending a ban on LNG exports, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm’s politically charged remarks suggested otherwise. Meanwhile, an S&P Global report challenges DOE’s claims, highlighting the critical role of U.S. LNG in global energy security and economic stability.

This article breaks down the contentious DOE study, examines key rebuttals from industry experts, and underscores the importance of LNG exports for America and its allies.

DOE Claim #1: LNG Exports Will Raise Domestic Natural Gas Prices

The DOE asserts that permitting new LNG facilities will significantly increase domestic natural gas prices, estimating a wholesale price hike of over 30% and an average household cost increase of $100 annually by 2050. However, this claim contradicts years of data and even statements within the DOE’s own report.

What the DOE Study Admits:

• U.S. natural gas prices have remained “relatively stable” compared to global markets.
• There is “uncertainty” about the relationship between export levels and domestic pricing.
• Historical data does not show a consistent link between increased LNG exports and price hikes.

The S&P Global study further refutes the DOE’s claims, citing that despite a 13 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) increase in LNG feedgas demand since 2016, domestic wholesale gas prices have continued to trend downward. Temporary price spikes were primarily attributed to post-COVID recovery and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not LNG exports.

A Congressional Research Service report from April 2024 also confirmed that domestic natural gas prices have remained “stable and relatively low” since 2016, despite the U.S. emerging as a leading LNG exporter.

DOE Claim #2: Existing LNG Capacity is Sufficient for Global Demand

The DOE suggests that current U.S. LNG export capacity is enough to meet global demand, citing a supposed decline in demand from Europe and Southeast Asia. However, S&P Global’s analysis paints a different picture.

What S&P Global Found:

• Natural gas will remain essential in the global energy mix through 2040 and beyond.
• To meet long-term demand, the world will require over 100 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) of additional LNG supply capacity.
• This projection excludes capacity already under construction, signaling a critical need for new projects.

Europe’s shift away from Russian energy sources and Southeast Asia’s growing industrial needs further underscore the demand for U.S. LNG. By dismissing these factors, the DOE’s analysis overlooks the global reliance on natural gas as a bridge fuel during the energy transition.

The Economic and Strategic Importance of U.S. LNG Exports

LNG exports deliver significant benefits to the U.S. and the world:

1. Boosting the U.S. Economy: LNG exports reduce the trade deficit, create high-paying jobs, and stimulate growth in energy-producing regions.
2. Enhancing Energy Security: U.S. LNG helps allies, particularly in Europe, reduce dependence on Russian gas, countering geopolitical threats.
3. Supporting Global Progress: LNG provides a reliable and cleaner alternative to coal, facilitating the energy transition in developing regions.

Jeff Eshelman, President and CEO of the Independent Petroleum Association, criticized the DOE study as a politically motivated effort to empower anti-LNG activists. Eshelman emphasized the economic and strategic value of LNG, urging policymakers to avoid hindering the industry’s progress.

Flaws in the DOE’s Approach

Critics, including Bloomberg energy analyst Javier Blas, pointed out discrepancies between the DOE’s nuanced 601-page report and its public messaging. The report itself lacks conclusive evidence against LNG exports, but Secretary Granholm’s selective interpretation spins the findings to support restrictive policies.

Blas summarized the issue succinctly:

“DOE Secretary commissions LNG report hoping for arguments against American gas exports. DOE experts produce a nuanced 601-page report that doesn’t meet those hopes. Solution? Secretary spins the 601 pages into a 3-page letter to achieve the initial objective.”

The Case for Expanding LNG Capacity

Blocking new LNG projects risks undermining U.S. economic growth, energy leadership, and global stability. The S&P Global study, along with decades of real-world data, demonstrates that U.S. LNG exports:

• Stabilize domestic natural gas markets.
• Strengthen partnerships with global allies.
• Provide a cleaner, reliable energy source during the transition to renewables.

Policymakers must focus on fostering innovation and investment in LNG infrastructure to sustain America’s energy leadership and global influence.

A Clear Path Forward for U.S. LNG

The DOE’s study, while politically charged, fails to present a compelling case against LNG exports. In contrast, S&P Global’s analysis underscores the critical role of U.S. LNG in driving economic growth, enhancing energy security, and supporting the global energy transition.

As the second installment of S&P Global’s U.S. LNG Impact Study approaches in March 2025, policymakers have an opportunity to embrace the data-driven insights and ensure America remains a leader in global energy markets.

For more updates and in-depth analysis, follow industry experts like Javier Blas on social media and stay informed on this pivotal issue.