James Lee, Assistant Research Professor at Academia Sinica, provides crucial insights into Trump’s approach to Indo-Pacific relations and Taiwan security. Here’s a comprehensive analysis of the expected developments:
Strategic Policy Continuity and Changes
- Taiwan Policy:
- Maintenance of strategic ambiguity
- Enhanced defense burden-sharing
- Continued diplomatic support
- Export control scrutiny
- TSMC technology oversight
- Regional Security Architecture:
- Quad alliance adjustments
- AUKUS submarine deployment possibilities
- U.S. Forces Japan command upgrade
- Korean Peninsula stability focus
- Indo-Pacific partnerships review
Indo-Pacific Defense and Deterrence
Key developments include:
- Asymmetric Defense Strategy:
- Increased pressure on Taiwan
- Civil defense enhancement
- Response clarity improvement
- Blockade contingency planning
- Military modernization
- Diplomatic Space:
- TAIPEI Act implementation
- Counter-PRC initiatives
- International office protection
- UN resolution interpretations
- Alliance strengthening
Technology and Economic Controls
Major focus areas:
- Export Controls:
- Dual-use technology restrictions
- Semiconductor oversight
- TSMC compliance monitoring
- Huawei technology tracking
- Defense modernization impacts
- Geoeconomic tools deployment
- Technology access limitations
- PLA modernization counters
- Supply chain security
- Innovation protection
